Introduction To Lunar Settlement
The concept of establishing a human settlement on the moon has gained significant attention in recent years, with many entrepreneurs and scientists proposing ambitious plans for lunar cities and industries. The discovery of water in dark craters at the moon's poles has sparked a "moon rush" to establish bases there, followed by villages, cities, and heavy industry. However, a recent study suggests that the availability of water on the moon may not be sufficient to support large-scale human settlement.
Background Context And Water Availability
The moon's surface is characterized by dozens of crater floors that have not seen direct sunlight in about 4 billion years, creating "cold traps" where water ice can exist without sublimating away. These craters are thought to contain water ice, possibly as much as 1 billion tons, which was brought to the moon by asteroids. The presence of water at the lunar poles changes everything about human visits to the moon, making it possible to envision a "moon village" where people could survive without importing every last bit from Earth.
Feasibility Of Lunar Cities
The study published in Frontiers in Space Technologies estimates the feasibility of a lunar city by looking at how much power and water a large population would use on the moon. The good news is that power is not a problem, as the rims of the craters containing the pits of eternal darkness are in almost permanent sunlight, making it possible to generate 3 gigawatts of electricity using kilometer-tall towers covered with photovoltaic arrays. However, the bad news is that even assuming a generous 1 billion tons of water to start with, without recycling, a city of 1 million people would last only a few years.
Water Recycling And Sustainability
Even with 98% efficient recycling of water, a city of 1 million people will run out of water in just over a century. Today's best estimates of the amount of water on the moon are about 30 times less than 1 billion tons, shortening the time to water exhaustion by the same factor. This means that even a small city would run dry after just a decade or so. A moon village with 1,000 people, or even a town with 10,000 people, would instead be sustainable for several centuries or more.
Conclusion And Future Outlook
The study's findings suggest that while the idea of a lunar city is enticing, it may not be attainable with current technology and resources. However, smaller-scale settlements, such as a moon village or town, could be sustainable for several centuries or more. The development of more efficient water recycling technologies and the identification of new sources of water on the moon could help to extend the lifespan of a lunar city. Ultimately, the establishment of a human settlement on the moon will require careful planning, innovative technologies, and a deep understanding of the moon's resources and environment.
Sources
This is an original synthesis by Qivorane based on reporting from the outlets below.
