Most rental property "analyses" include 4 line items: rent, mortgage, taxes, insurance. This misses 5 expenses that total $400-$600/month on a typical property — turning a $500/mo cash flow into $0.
The Basic (Wrong) Analysis
Rent: $1,500/mo
Mortgage: -$850
Taxes: -$225
Insurance: -$175
──────────
"Cash flow": $250/mo
Looks profitable. Here are the 5 expenses this analysis ignores.
1. Vacancy (5-10% of rent)
No property is rented 365 days a year. Tenants leave. Turnovers take 2-6 weeks. Between cleaning, repairs, listing, showing, and screening — you lose rent.
National average: 6.6%
Midwest (OH, IN, TN): 5-7%
South (FL, TX, GA): 6-9%
$1,500/mo x 7% = $105/mo lost
2. Repairs & Maintenance (8-12% of rent)
Things break. Plumbing leaks. Appliances die. Roofs need patching. Budget 10% of rent for ongoing repairs.
$1,500/mo x 10% = $150/mo
As a property ages, this percentage increases. Properties over 30 years old may need 12-15%.
3. Property Management (8-10% of rent)
Even if you self-manage today, price it in. Your time has value. When you buy property #3 or #4, you will hire a PM. If the deal only works because you are the free labor — it does not work.
$1,500/mo x 9% = $135/mo
4. Capital Expenditure Reserve (5-8% of rent)
CapEx is different from repairs. Repairs fix what is broken. CapEx replaces what wears out: roof ($8K-$15K every 25 years), HVAC ($5K-$8K every 15 years), water heater ($1K every 10 years), flooring ($3K-$5K every 10 years).
$1,500/mo x 5% = $75/mo (minimum)
5. Landlord-Paid Utilities ($50-$200/mo)
Water, sewer, trash — commonly landlord-paid on multifamily. Even on SFR, you pay all utilities during vacancy.
Average: $80/mo
The Real Analysis
Rent: $1,500/mo
Mortgage: -$850
Taxes: -$225
Insurance: -$175
Vacancy (7%): -$105
Repairs (10%): -$150
PM (9%): -$135
CapEx (5%): -$75
Utilities: -$80
──────────────
Real cash flow: -$295/mo
From +$250 to -$295. A $545/month swing.
The Breakeven Point
For this property to actually cash flow at $0, rent needs to be:
expenses_fixed = 850 + 225 + 175 + 80 # $1,330
expense_pct = 0.07 + 0.10 + 0.09 + 0.05 # 31%
# rent - fixed - rent*pct = 0
# rent * (1 - 0.31) = 1330
# rent = 1330 / 0.69
breakeven_rent = 1330 / 0.69
print(f"Breakeven rent: ${breakeven_rent:,.0f}/mo")
# Breakeven rent: $1,928/mo
The property needs $1,928/mo rent to break even — not $1,500. That is a 28% gap.
Bottom Line
If your rental analysis has fewer than 8 line items, it is wrong. Add vacancy, repairs, PM, CapEx, and utilities. If the deal survives all 5 — it is real. If it does not — walk away.
