Britain’s inflation progress is about to reverse. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release its July Consumer Price Index report, with economists forecasting a jump in the headline rate to 2.9%, a four-month high, according to FXStreet. If it arrives as expected, it will push inflation further from the Bank of England’s 2% target and directly fuel speculation around a September interest rate hike, keeping borrowing costs painfully high for longer. For a detailed look at the prior month's peak, see our report on UK Inflation Hits the Boiling Point at 2.9% This July.
This makes the upcoming data one of the most critical economic releases of the year for the Pound and for anyone with a mortgage. The primary driver is a known, scheduled event, but its repercussions will be felt from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee right down to household budgets.
The main culprit behind July’s price surge isn't the usual suspect
Forecasts expect the headline CPI to climb to 2.9%, up from 2.5% in June. This would be the highest reading since March. The primary driver, however, isn't the stickier components the Bank of England usually obsesses over. It's a one-off administrative change. On July 1, Ofgem's energy price cap for an average household rose by about 10%.
“The inflation outlook over the coming months may prove less benign than recent data (energy aside) suggests,” warns TD Securities, flagging multiple upside risks.
That scheduled increase is a direct input into the CPI basket, creating a guaranteed base effect that would push the headline number higher even if all other prices stood still. This is the core flaw of volatile, component-driven inflation.
Core CPI, which strips out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, is actually projected to ease slightly to 2.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, services inflation, the Bank of England's favored gauge of domestically generated, persistent price pressures, is forecast to come in at 3.4%.
So, the story splits. Headline inflation spikes on a known technicality. Underlying domestic pressures, while still elevated, might show tentative signs of cooling.
How a regulated price cap can drive the national inflation rate
To understand why a single regulatory decision can skew a national statistic, you need to know how the Ofgem cap works. It's a maximum unit price set per kilowatt-hour for gas and electricity, adjusted every three months. It reflects wholesale energy costs from a few months prior.
The increase that took effect in July was priced into the market for weeks, and the ONS’s data collection directly captures it. The monthly CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in July after a mere 0.1% rise in June, largely thanks to this single item.
Energy-driven inflation is predictable. The real question for policymakers isn’t what happened in July, but what happens next. Does this energy shock spark secondary effects? TD Securities analysts point to airfare inflation potentially "re-accelerating" as airlines recoup higher fuel costs, and to core goods inflation showing signs of turning higher. This follows similar global patterns where base effects mask stickier problems, as seen in our analysis of Bitcoin Slides As Trap in July CPI Data Emerges.
The Bank of England itself acknowledged this in its April Monetary Policy Report. The conflict in the Middle East, which has since flared again, "means that prospects for global energy prices are highly uncertain," the report stated, adding that the MPC will monitor "how its impact propagates through the economy."
What a hotter inflation figure means for your mortgage and savings
For UK households, this data point is more than an academic exercise. It directly controls the monetary policy thermostat.
No rate cuts on the horizon. A headline inflation print at or above 2.9% would exceed the BoE's own forecast of 2.8%. This validates the central bank's cautious stance and pushes any discussion of interest rate cuts into 2027. Markets are instead forced to price in the possibility of a rate hike this year.
Mortgage pain persists. Anyone on a variable-rate or tracker mortgage will see no relief in their monthly payments. More critically, hundreds of thousands of homeowners coming off fixed-rate deals in the coming months will face significantly higher rates than they locked in two or three years ago. The Bank Rate remains at 3.75%, and this data locks it there.
A brief Sterling boost. For currency markets, the immediate reaction would likely be positive for the Pound, as higher inflation brings forward the chance of a BoE rate hike relative to other central banks. FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta notes a hot print could "drive GBP/USD back above 1.3600," continuing its recent strength, similar to the dynamics in Sterling Hits 3-Month High as Fed Fever Cools Dollar Rally.
The secondary effect is political. With a new government in place, pressure to manage the cost-of-living crisis will intensify, even as fiscal tools are limited by high debt levels.
Beyond the headline: The clues economists will hunt for in the report
The smart money will look past the predictable energy-driven headline. The real story for the BoE’s September 17 meeting will be found in three key areas.
Services inflation's path. The forecast of 3.4% year-over-year is the number to watch. This is a direct proxy for domestic wage pressures and consumer demand. If it remains stubbornly above 3%, it screams "second-round effects" and gives hawkish MPC members ammunition to vote for a hike.
Food price momentum. June’s data showed food inflation cooling to its slowest rate in nearly two years. But TD Securities warns this relief may be temporary, with "fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions" still working through supply chains.
Goods inflation and supply chains. Another red flag from analysts: "Core goods inflation is showing signs of turning higher, with electronics price increases and renewed supply chain pressures reducing the scope for discounting." If this materializes in the data, it signals that global disinflationary tailwinds are fading.
Those components, not the energy cap bump, will determine whether the Bank of England feels compelled to act later this year. The July meeting minutes already noted that "risks to inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside" and that "policy could need to react before inflation persistence risks materialise conclusively."
The inflation rollercoaster isn't over, but the track ahead is clearer
July’s anticipated inflation spike is a known bump on the track, not a sudden U-turn. The path back to the 2% target was always going to be volatile, especially with geopolitical shocks dictating energy prices.
The forward look is clearer now. The energy base effect will fade in subsequent months, assuming no further major spikes, but the underlying stickiness in services and core goods remains the more significant barrier.
For households and investors, the practical takeaway is this: prepare for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. The Bank of England’s stance is reactive, and it will not pivot towards easing until it sees sustained evidence that domestic inflation pressures are broken. One hot headline, even if driven by Ofgem, is enough to delay that day further.
Watch the services number on release day. It will tell you far more about the winter of your mortgage discontent than the headline figure ever could.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
Impact Analysis
- The forecasted rise to 2.9% pushes inflation further from the BOE's 2% target, increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate hike.
- The reversal of inflation progress directly impacts mortgage holders and borrowers, signaling prolonged high borrowing costs.
- It highlights a key vulnerability in inflation metrics, as a scheduled administrative change (Ofgem's cap) can drive significant economic policy shifts.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
